Hugh Hendry coming out of hibernation -- Video at recent conference

Mr. Hugh Hendry of Eclectica appears to have come out of his self imposed social hibernation. Below is a video from the Milken Institute conference where he is part of a panel discussing Europe's problems.  It is a long video but I suggest you watch it.

While Mr. Hendry appears to be still very bearish about Europe I do agree with the person on his right that now is the time to start looking for opportunities. (note, I said LOOK)  With all their problems and low stock prices there must be some incredible buys amongst all the wreckage that European austerity is creating. I'm not suggesting you buy now but start doing your homework.  Anyone have any ideas? I'm open to suggestions.




Thanks Ft.com Alphaville blog

edit: Here's the details on the panel speakers
http://www.milkeninstitute.org/events/gcprogram.taf?function=detail&eventid=gc12&EvID=3566

Observation of the day: Greeks are not Germans

It may appear an obvious observation but to the euro and (for a while at least) the bonds markets Greeks and Germans were the almost exactly the same. Twins.

Two recent pieces on public radio highlight how very different from the Germans the Greeks can really be.

The first radio spot describes the failed efforts of a Greek computer scientist to make the revenue system (the tax man) more efficient in Greece. All he thought they needed was a little technological help to point them in the right direction.  Heh, not quite.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/01/05/144747663/how-a-computer-scientist-tried-to-save-greece?ft=1&f=100

This longer piece (nearly an hour) aired this weekend and I caught it on Saturday.  It goes into the desire to create the euro and how Greece basically lied to get into the eurozone and the epic borrowing binge Greeks went on after 'easy money' appeared after the Euro was introduced.  While its long it is a good overview of how Europe got into this mess.
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/455/continental-breakup

Greece's credit history is not the best.  Since their independence in the early 1800's they have spent more than 50% of their time in default. (This time is different, 2008, Reinhart & Rogoff, page 99) Do you really think they would adopt the fiscal discipline of Germany after being handed their unlimited gold card?

ht @BarbarianCap

Twitter Linkage roundup

Some good links and tweets from my twitter stream:

RT @QuoteJunkie: "To Avoid Criticism, Do Nothing, Say Nothing, And Do Nothing." - Elbert Hubbard #Quotes
Stunning @BrazilFinance: Anyone who has doubts EU is a failure should read this: http://t.co/KLCoVjjk
RT @ForexLive: ForexLive: Fed swaps with ECB nearly $900 mln http://t.co/3n9xBqzT
I know I'm repeating myself, but these charts are going the wrong way if you are bullish: http://t.co/Mz0UM73y http://t.co/uIGD6kVb 
Skullcandy's Groupons are creeping up to higher and higher priced inventory http://t.co/0N8VKSPU First $59 deal $SKUL %SKUL
RT @tomkeene: Europe's shrinking money supply flashes slump warning - Telegraph http://t.co/J9z8nbWa ...money supply doesn't matter...right.
RT @OpenSecretsDC: What companies have your lawmakers personally invested in? Find out in our congressional wealth database: http://t.co/fTWkmsBV #tcot #ows
RT @relevantorgans: How can 23 yr old son of a lifelong public servant drive a red Ferrari? The magic of socialism! Now shut up and dig. http://t.co/MoDsIQTM
RT @Uldis_Zelmenis: Hit of the day by Citi: For 35 years post WW2 real returns on debt were negative. The negative returns in th (cont) http://t.co/IfcqeNhs
Falling Chinese home prices http://t.co/FEtKhpIg
A snippet on Hugh Hendry's recent trading strategy http://t.co/IaWq45cG
RT @theanalyst_hk: Seriously, how could I be bullish? http://t.co/YnPoztie
LED bulb benefit/cost at inflection point http://t.co/Qpz8qu7x #yesiamageek
@BadassoftheWeek swimming lessons http://t.co/hJRhyhdH

How much better can it all get? http://t.co/yyRRYdfv ---- Looking at whether all the good/bad news is out
RT @jennyandteets: Guys, know who likes to hear about your fantasy football team? Your fantasy girlfriend #yourekillingme -- I have enough problems with the real world, I don't need to stress about my fantasy life as well.

Linkage roundup

Some reading material for you from my twitter stream:


Italian default scenarios by Credit Writedowns http://t.co/XZ1feKq5 -- The situation in Italy is getting worse. 
Doubline Emerging Markets Income Fund Presentation. Good emerging market review http://t.co/x5OicI8J
RT @BrazilFinance: m'fer... RT @zerohedge: Presenting Europe's Remaining 2011 Bond And Bill Auctions... All 104 Of Them http://t.co/jjJOxRPi
RT @thenewstribune: Crystal plans to open Friday, but #WhitePass and The Summit at #Snoqualmie in wait-and-see mode: http://t.co/bok5eeQz -- ski season opens early in the Pacific Northwest. Go global warming!
Social media decision tree http://t.co/tZ4nxDuZ
Interbank credit stress examples #2,346 and 47 http://t.co/Mz0UM73y http://t.co/uIGD6kVb -- Until these stop rising I'm not getting bullish.
Spain/Germany spreads at fresh highs http://t.co/Q8tuP3eB -- not good
RT @AlephBlog: Europes liquidity crisis http://t.co/deWTyNf8 The spread on senior unsecured bank debt measures EZone financial credit stress: high now $$
RT @EpicureanDeal: Spot on: "The hiring of Chelsea Clinton doesnt so much debase... TV news... as reveal its true value." http://t.co/rV9rTGB8
RT @niubi: A Desperate Apartment Seller In Beijing | Sinocism http://t.co/DuDojIWZ
RT @PragCapitalist: OECD: LEADING INDICATORS POINT TO SLOWING GLOBAL GROWTH: Just in case Europe didnt have you feeling uncertain e... http://t.co/V1yAL4Pu
Chinese ghost cities get really wierd: http://t.co/Q4B4UeS5
Now the WSJ gets bullish on munis: http://t.co/V4VX0xgR I've been bullish a while, still holding $MUB http://t.co/Z2xoDWcv
RT @creditplumber: Great little 18min TED video about lie spotting by Pamela Meyer. http://t.co/wbW1GT3w via @Ritholtz
RT @pdacosta: Big Obama donor got no-bid $433 mln contract to supply experimental drug for threat that may not exist http://t.co/qkGMXD6A h/t @AdamPSharp
RT @BergenCapital: $MSG - a lost NBA season is about 100mm of EBITDA off of $MSG (40% of FY 2012 EBITDA)
Skullcandy $SKUL keeps unloading inventory via Groupon. The latest: http://t.co/DNDCLhaE
Time lapse video of Earth from space station. Very beautiful! http://t.co/hrdDsA2m
RT @stlouisfed: New data available on FRED: Indexes on housing affordability from the National Association of Realtors http://t.co/z4APddru
RT @thetailchaser: USD 3m Libor fixings. It seems some institutions r getting squeezd out of the market. Takin other institutions w/ them http://t.co/WPzOVMDH
How much more can the ECB buy? http://t.co/z2m5L0R7
RT @ritholtz: Joke of the day: The Italian debt crisis is now being renamed Lehmancello $$
RT @izakaminska: Another brilliant blog from Lew Spellman http://t.co/bgmQdipu
How you fail is important and continually praising kids for 'being smart' can backfire. http://t.co/ycfOUekP
RT @PragCapitalist: IS THE CHINESE PROPERTY MARKET COLLAPSING?: Despite all the clamoring over a new recession, it looks like the U.... http://t.co/Rhl9Rmww
Motivation -> http://t.co/74a0c1yL

Linkage roundup

Some reading material for you from my twitter stream:


http://t.co/vXWLZxuV - Italy near tipping point of increased margin requirements. I'm not the only one talking about this
RT @zerohedge: Hugh Hendry says he has made bets that will deliver a 40-to-1 return if the ECB cuts rates below 1% next year http://t.co/PAv4msUK
RT @edwardnh: The fact Greece's exit from euro has been discussed openly is seismic shift http://t.co/QVaWF7si
I'll get bullish when this stops going up. http://t.co/6vmUhc60
97% of family businesses don't make it past the 3rd generation http://t.co/MZAwrwRK
RT @FGoria: MT @M_McDonough: Italian CDS implying, country may be at risk of losing its investment grade status: http://t.co/mIVWCwkk
RT @mbusigin: Note that we did work on this in August, which gave us a different (bullish) signal: http://t.co/ivxLrhzB
RT @mbusigin: The few times realised volatility has eclipsed implied volatility, it presaged large declines: http://t.co/zTRw4ZDE
RT @edwardnh: Greece gets ultimatum: accept austerity plan or forgo extra bailout cash | Business | The Guardian http://t.co/DZSOBkDY -- Greece later backed down.
RT @edwardnh: France and Germany to withhold aid, Greece to be ejected http://t.co/WtNwsF6M #in $$ 
Greek referendum provides political cover http://t.co/MFDzDUCk
RT @PragCapitalist: THE GREEK REFERENDUM AND THE ROLE OF DEMOCRACY: I set off a bit of a firestorm on Twitter this afternoon when I ... http://t.co/O8GZFHvQ
New international bond etf's for Germany, Canada, and Australia $aud $cad $bund http://t.co/OemicVIk
Balestra Capitals Matthew Lucket Talks Gold, Deleveraging Story, and China Credit Problem http://t.co/9vGl387V @historysquared

Mr. Bond (Market) is not impressed

Do I look impressed?

Even before the Greek referendum drama of the last 24 hours the bond market was not impressed with the latest Euro crisis 'solution'.

With Portugal, Ireland and Greece all tipping over the edge the next domino to watch is Italy.

Last week's news of a 50% 'voluntary' haircut for some Greek debt vaulted world equity and currency markets higher in a massive relief and short covering rally.  Mr. Bond market was not so impressed.

While both the absolute and relative yield of Italy's 10 year bond did fall a bit late last week on the news of the news of a new solution to the Greek debt situation announced Thursday morning by Friday afternoon Italian yields were creeping upwards again.

Germany - Italy spread

The German/Italian 10 year spread has blown out to new highs

Italy 10 year

Very close to breaking recent highs

The news of a Greek referendum on the latest round of negotiations shocked the markets and drove almost every risk asset downward with only the dollar and US Treasuries rallying. Italian yields are not looking good from a technical perspective and if they break 7% it could be the final domino to fall before the real euro crisis starts.  I'll be watching these metrics closely.

The Swiss choose inflation, but the Chinese do not?

The Swiss central bank recently announced it would print any amount of francs required to maintain a peg of 1.20 Swiss francs to one euro.  The response was... massive

Euro / Swiss Franc

A multi percent move in currency markets is exceedingly rare. I'm not going to spill many electrons going over why the Swiss decided it was time to fix their currency as it has been a hot topic over the last 48 hours.  The WSJ and Economist have already written about it at length.  

So why bring up the topic? Because the Chinese have been doing it for years and the dots need to be connected.  I recently commented on the threat of China 'dumping' US Treasuries and how this was not the problem everyone thought it would be.

In both the Swiss and Chinese case you have a country forcibly keeping their currency away from the market clearing price for differing reasons; the Swiss exporters are getting killed while the Chinese desire to keep their workshops fully staffed by forcibly underpricing their currency.

Whatever the reason the result will be the same -- an explosion of  domestic currency and loan demand eventually forcing up demand and inflation.  The WSJ's title on the Franc peg is The Swiss Choose Inflation  Why does one not think the same will happen in China? Chovanec has highlighted the constant struggle to contain inflation in China from both a massive increase in lending and an artificially underpriced currency. 

In both cases the Swiss Franc and the Chinese Yuan will eventually find their market clearing prices regardless of central bank manipulation, either by currency price appreciation or by domestic inflation.

edit: FT links China and Switzerland as well:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/09/07/671121/what-will-switzerland-do-with-all-those-euros/

Italian and Spanish yields keep climbing

I recently highlighted the rise in Spanish and Italian government bonds yields. Today they are shooting higher yet again and I'm certain this is a contributing factor to the equity market's weakness, US budgetary problems notwithstanding.

I usually don't mention my trading activity but I sold off an equity ETF position Friday due to this European contagion situation.

Club Med Hangover -- Bond yields climbing in Spain and Italy

Nearly a month ago I mentioned rising yields in Spain possibly causing problems.  I underestimated the number of countries. Both Italy and Spain's treasury yields have spiked higher.

Italy 10 year

Spain 10 year

Spain 10 year versus German 10 year

 

None of the charts are pretty.  While Italy was getting most of the headlines for the rate of yield increase please note how Spain's yields are higher.  Any EU country bordering the Mediterranean is having serious problems right now.

Greece and Ireland are not the only European problems.

While Greece is dominating the news (again) there are other rumblings in Euroland you should be watching.  Below is the spread between German and Spanish 10 year yields.  The trend is not going the right way.

Furthermore yesterday Spanish 10 year yields went up on a 'risk off' day.  No longer does the market consider the government debt of Spain a safe haven when the equity and other risk markets go down.  I'm closely watching the relative and absolute levels of  Spanish debt  As the Greece situation develops keep an eye on this to see if the panic spreads to Spain.

Portuguese recycling & Iceland recovery -- Why the Chinese and Japanese are buying EU debt

The recent news of both China and Japan buying EU debt provides a very interesting window into the various motivations of investors.  While most investors are leaving the PIIGS debt markets, China and Japan appear very willing to invest.  Why?  It appears the Asian nations' motivations are different than return of principal.  Both are exporting nations and if more European trading partners are forced into austerity measures of higher taxes and lower government spending their own export industries will suffer.

American policy makers should be mindful of this when negotiating with China. It may appear they have the upper hand when looking at their massive foreign exchange reserves, but China also needs our markets to keep their factories running.

Unfortunately Portugal looks to be the next domino to fall, Asian assistance notwithstanding.  FT's blog lays out the timeline I have previously alluded to: It appears once a PIIGS' bond yield pierces the 7% level a bailout eventually follows.

However even with these 'bailouts' and Euro Central Bank assistance the problem has not been solved. As austerity measures and budget cuts drag GDP down the burden of debt grows ever higher in a nasty feedback loop.
From Satyajit Das:

Cuts in government spending and higher taxes have mired the economy in recession. Falls in tax revenue necessitate increasingly deeper cuts in spending to try to stabilise public finances. In 2010, the budget deficit was forecast at 12% of GDP, even after spending cuts and tax rises worth Euro 14.5 billion   The problems of the banking sector are increasing due to the poor economic conditions. Hitherto largely confined to commercial property, problems are now spreading to the broader economy. Unemployment and lower incomes mean that householders are unable to meet payment obligations on mortgages and other loans. Weak economic conditions have affected businesses, increasing default levels. In the absence of strong economic growth, inflation and a massive devaluation, the peripheral economies, such as Ireland and Greece, may be unable to shrink themselves to solvency. A simple relationship demonstrates the unsustainable position:

Changes In Government Debt = Budget Deficit + [(Interest Rate – GDP Growth) X Debt]

In order to restore solvency, overburdened borrowers must stabilise debt and begin to reduce the level of borrowing. This requires GDP Growth exceeding interest rates, a budget surplus (through spending cuts and/or tax cuts) or a combination of these. EU/ IMF assistance to Ireland was designed to address the high yields on Irish bonds, which curtailed the State’s ability to borrow. But the 5.80% cost of the bailout debt requires an equivalent growth rate and a balanced budget simply to stabilise debt at current very high levels.

Meanwhile the recovery in Iceland provides contrast to the current austerity and higher tax drudgery in the weaker European countries:

The Nordic economy grew at 1.2pc in the third quarter and looks poised to rebound next year. It ends a gruelling slump caused largely by the "New Viking" antics of Landsbanki, Glitnir and Kaupthing, the trio of lenders that brought down Iceland's financial system in September 2008. . .

This has led to vastly different debt dynamics as they enter Year III of the drama. Iceland's budget deficit will be 6.3pc this year, and soon in surplus: Ireland's will be 12pc (32pc with bank bail-outs) and not much better next year . . . 

The pain has been distributed very differently. Irish unemployment has reached 14.1pc, and is still rising. Iceland's peaked at 9.7pc and has since fallen to 7.3pc.

Ahead of schedule PIIGS bond yields make new highs

Ahead of schedule bond yields in the PIIGS of Europe have reached new highs.   'Risk Free' interest rates have risen as well since November so the relative spread may not be at a new maximum yet but the trend is going the wrong way.

Something to watch in the new year

The year is wrapping up and the US stock market continues to grind higher in a Christmas rally. While the US is in a much calmer state as compared to a year ago, not all is well across the pond in Europe.

The fiscal crisis in the PIIGS of Europe (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) has not been 'fixed' in my opinion and will most likely move up to the headlines in America very shortly.

Here you can see a chart of the PIIGS bond yields  (Bloomberg) and they are not going in the right direction. The spike and fall in May 2010 was due to Greek financial difficulties and the spike in November was from Ireland. Note how much faster the fall in yields after the Ireland event has been retraced as compared to the Greek event.

As this chart shows the absolute yields and not the relative 'risk' of the PIIGS regions looking at the combined CDS for the PIIGS (Bloomberg) provides a clearer view of perceived risk.  It too is almost at new highs and could very well exceed previous peaks before the new year.    I suggest you keep an eye on both of these indicators and if you see them shooting higher you will most likely see weakness in the equity markets as well.

Greek bond yields keep crawling higher

Greek 10 year bond yields are creeping higher again.  I don't know if 'creeping' is the best word considering their volatility over the last year but you be the judge.   The 10 year closed at 10.91% today.
You can see the spike to 12+% and then rapid decline in May when the 750+ billion Euro bailout package was announced.
Since then rates have started climbing again.  I wonder what will happen when rates climb above their pre-bailout levels?

Late Night Linkage

Postings have been light due to some business related demands.  Here's some links to my recent reads from the last few days.

Humor
Vuvuzela -- Will it blend? Youtube

Gold
Telegraph - did BIS gold swap spook the markets?

China
From Chinadaily - Property restrictions continue.
Chinadaily - Home price appreciation slows.
Chinadaily - Rate of lending slows in China.

Residential
From CalculatedRisk - A Chapter 13 bankruptcy can wipe away a 2nd lien.

Commodities
From FT -- The financialization of commodities.

LNG
From Hellenicshipping - A lot of spare LNG ships standing idle.

Lumber
Globe and Mail - Canada exporting lumber to China.

Sovereign debt
CalculatedRisk - How much debt is there and what is the probability of default?  It's a multi part series. Good stuff.
GMO - White paper on defaults in history. Very good. Intend to write longer blog post about this.

BP / Oill spill
WSJ - BP has replaced old cap, trying new one in an attempt to stop leak.  (This is at least 24 hours old.)

Euro
Telegraph - Legal challenges to bailout of Greece.
WSJ - Moody's downgrades Portugal.

Debt
Annaly - The debt deleveraging continues.

I was only joking about Greece selling islands!

I was only kidding!
When I joked (here and here) about Greece selling off some islands it was entirely in jest.

Evidently Greece is now putting numerous islands up for sale in an attempt to pay down some of their debt. From the Guardian:

Now Greece is making it easier for the rich and famous to fulfill their dreams by preparing to sell, or offering long-term leases on, some of its 6,000 sunkissed islands in a desperate attempt to repay its mountainous debts.

Only 227 Greek islands are populated and the decision to press ahead with potential sales has also been driven by the inability of the state to develop basic infrastructure, or police most of its islands. The hope is that the sale or long-term lease of some islands will attract investment that will generate jobs and taxable income.

ht: BusinessInsider

Hugh Hendry takes on . . . . Everyone

Mr. Hugh Hendry is always fun to watch and even more so in this interview:





He discusses the euro, china, George Soros and the 'axis of financial evil'. 

ht: Zerohedge

A final update on the Greek 'bailout'

I'm closing the running commentary on the upper right corner of the blog regarding the Greek financial situation.  Below is a copy of the text and links. 

The Greek drama has moved from the front page back a few sections and is on a 'slow burn'  I don't expect the situation to be resolved with the monstrous bailout package and as you can see from the chart Greek 10 year yields have started to slowly creep upwards.   In my opinion this will hit the front pages again and it won't be good news.  When? That's the big question. . . .
-----
Wondering how long the Greek drama will play out . . . Just because the EU promises some cash doesn't mean it is going to happen. The German constitutional court may have something to say about violating the Lisbon Treaty.
A Telegraph article lays out the details (13 April, 2010)

How much are the Irish and Italians going to contribute?

p. s. 10 year Greek bond spreads expanded on April 13th. I guess 40 billion euros is only good for one day.

April 20: Bond spreads hit new extremes last night again.

April 21: 8.11% -- spreads widened further.

April 22: 8.84

April 23: Greece pulls the rip cord and officially asks for aid. Want to guess how many days until this wears off?

April 26: 9.56% -- Aid request good for one day.

Austerity in Europe, it's so fashionable right now!

As I mentioned recently the austerity would be coming with the bailout packages.  It didn't take even a week and the cutbacks have already started.

Today - Telegraph

Premier Jose Luis Zapatero told a stunned nation that public sector pay will be reduced by 5pc this year and frozen in 2011. "We must make an extraordinary effort," he said.

Pension rises will be shelved. The country’s €2,500 baby bonus will be cancelled. Aid to the regions will be slashed and infrastructure projects will be put on ice. Mr Zapatero’s own monthly pay will fall 15pc to €6,515.

more from the Telegraph today in another article

Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, the prime minister, on Wednesday outlined a series of measures that will include a suspension in automatic increases to retirement pensions, a drop in overseas aid and a reduction in government investment.
He said 13,000 civil service jobs would be cut in 2010, with public sector wages frozen in 2011.

Spanish citizens will not be too happy about this and the austerity packages will tilt yet another country towards recession.

We're from the IMF and we are here to help you.

Before the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) of Europe breathe a deep sigh of relief as their funding problems are 'fixed' there's a few items to mention:

Assuming the money arrives you still have to deal with the IMF which has a usual gameplan of:

• Devalue the currency
• Raise taxes
• Cut government spending

Item 1 is out the door as countries use the Euro
Raising taxes and cutting government spending is not a mix that encourages GDP growth.  Consider that when making your investments.   Don't forget that during this period of IMF induced austerity debt / GDP levels will continue to rise.  This is the mother of all 'kicking the cans down the road'.

The wad of money (nearly a $US Trillion!) will be used to allow countries to roll their debts, not stimulus.  The French banks are breathing a deep sigh of relief right now.  Everyone else should rethink what this all means.

Here's a video with my favorite hedge fund agitator explaining the situation.  This interview occured before the announcement but it still holds true.



(ht Zerohedge)