Tuesday, July 7, 2020

Predictions are hard, especially about the Future

One of my favorite books ever is the book Dune by Frank Herbert.  He built a universe with a complex religious, economic and political framework that transports you to a completely different world.  It is not a dry technical read about an alternate reality but a compelling and rich story with an amazing tapestry behind it. 

I will stop gushing over the man, but I want you to watch this video and remember the respect I have for this man and his capabilities.  It's short at around 4 minutes.  He explains his natural curiosity and his broad skill set that created the situation for him to write the book series.  However even Mr. Herbert gets the end of fossil fuel prediction VERY wrong. 

When you extrapolate out the current state too far into the future one will come up with very wrong results.  The world is extremely dynamic.  Humans are very clever.  New technologies and innovations which were too expensive drop in price enough to totally transform the dynamics of a system, rendering your prediction invalid.

In this 1977 interview he states we will run out of fossil fuels in 40 years.  We are 3 years past that deadline.  Even brilliant people can be wrong on occasion.

Another attempt at a Dune movie is near release. I hope it's better than the last one.