Showing posts with label fail. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fail. Show all posts

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Jim Chanos is still short China - video

The video I previously posted has incited a new round of Chinese Empty City Watching.  Jim Chanos, the famous short seller, was recently on CNBC explaining his rationale and hinting at his short positions.



Link to video

How many more times China can continue down this path is unknown.

Friday, August 3, 2012

Media: Stop being stupid with your Olympic headlines and tweets

I thought this would die down rather quickly once the Olympic games got under way but unfortunately it appears I was wrong. Evidently most major media organizations don't seem to understand the Olympic games.  Folks, some of us want to watch the games and not know who will win the event beforehand!  I know this may appear to be strange but yes, it's true. I happen to be one of them.  I also like to go to movies and not know the ending beforehand.  I must be peculiar because the major media outlets appear determined to ruin the tension and build up to various Olympic events.

STOP IT!

Are you so desperate to post that article or tweet that headline 2 seconds before some other organization does that you don't realize you are totally ruining the event for a significant portion of your viewership?

It's not hard, really... I'll give you an excellent example in contrast.

I censored some of the AP tweet so I don't ruin your Olympic experience.
Somehow this concept is beyond reporters with several years of college and degrees and stuff.

Two tweets about the same event, and the Small Town Tacoma News Tribune (and I mean that as a complement) @thenewstribune understands the concept of building tension in a story while massive Associated Press seems to be run by monkeys and spam bots (and I'm insulting monkeys in this comparison)


In case I'm not making my point yet, imagine if a reporter wrote a book review like this:
The new novel A Winter's House by rookie author June Anderson breaks new ground in the mystery/crime genre. In the end we find out the butler killed Mrs. Kavendish in the study with a candlestick, but not during the stormy evening as the author alludes to in her clever story telling.  No, she'd been dead for days...
The NBC Olympics web site titles some videos with the event and WINNER'S NAME. Um, we may want to actually watch the video before knowing who won, ok?

You are tweeting and publishing to a worldwide audience who may not be able to watch the events live.  I have my DVR at home filled to capacity with 3 channels of Olympic programming, please stop ruining it for me.

In short: STOP BEING STUPID WITH YOUR HEADLINES AND TWEETS!  I'm unfollowing every news source that does so. Trust me, if you are furiously tweeting spoilers about the Olympics, I can get whatever other 'news' you provide elsewhere.

p.s. I know I'm just one smaller blogger in a very large universe but I'm sure there are others who share my viewpoint.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Observation of the day: Greeks are not Germans

It may appear an obvious observation but to the euro and (for a while at least) the bonds markets Greeks and Germans were the almost exactly the same. Twins.

Two recent pieces on public radio highlight how very different from the Germans the Greeks can really be.

The first radio spot describes the failed efforts of a Greek computer scientist to make the revenue system (the tax man) more efficient in Greece. All he thought they needed was a little technological help to point them in the right direction.  Heh, not quite.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/01/05/144747663/how-a-computer-scientist-tried-to-save-greece?ft=1&f=100

This longer piece (nearly an hour) aired this weekend and I caught it on Saturday.  It goes into the desire to create the euro and how Greece basically lied to get into the eurozone and the epic borrowing binge Greeks went on after 'easy money' appeared after the Euro was introduced.  While its long it is a good overview of how Europe got into this mess.
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/455/continental-breakup

Greece's credit history is not the best.  Since their independence in the early 1800's they have spent more than 50% of their time in default. (This time is different, 2008, Reinhart & Rogoff, page 99) Do you really think they would adopt the fiscal discipline of Germany after being handed their unlimited gold card?

ht @BarbarianCap

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

China's lending in context -- Time to pay the bill

Earlier this month I highlighted the continued deceleration in Chinese lending growth from it's peak in late 2009.  Just how massive their credit growth was unknown to me until this recent post and chart by Global Macro Monitor

The growth in lending right after the 2008/09 credit crisis is truly spectacular, even compared to other high growth Asian economies.  I'll snicker even more when I hear talking heads gush about how the Chinese mandarins were able to 'navigate' their way through the economic crisis and their ability to manage such a large economy.
Bunk.
They just called up the bankers and said LEND.
The bankers asked,  "How much?"
It was not some Chinese mastery of the economic cycle or superior technocratic skill; it was simply an ability to throw lots of money at the problem. Unfortunately for China the bill is now coming due.

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Mr. Bond (Market) is not impressed

Do I look impressed?
Even before the Greek referendum drama of the last 24 hours the bond market was not impressed with the latest Euro crisis 'solution'.

With Portugal, Ireland and Greece all tipping over the edge the next domino to watch is Italy.

Last week's news of a 50% 'voluntary' haircut for some Greek debt vaulted world equity and currency markets higher in a massive relief and short covering rally.  Mr. Bond market was not so impressed.

While both the absolute and relative yield of Italy's 10 year bond did fall a bit late last week on the news of the news of a new solution to the Greek debt situation announced Thursday morning by Friday afternoon Italian yields were creeping upwards again.
The German/Italian 10 year spread has blown out to new highs


Very close to breaking recent highs

The news of a Greek referendum on the latest round of negotiations shocked the markets and drove almost every risk asset downward with only the dollar and US Treasuries rallying. Italian yields are not looking good from a technical perspective and if they break 7% it could be the final domino to fall before the real euro crisis starts.  I'll be watching these metrics closely.


Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Ordos -- Time to double down

Nearly two years ago I highlighted the city of Ordos, China and how it appeared local municipalities and investors were building an empty city with no hope of a positive return on investment.

Fast forward to present day and the same reporter made a return visit to see what has changed. While there have been a few people moving in, residential construction continues at the usual Chinese breakneck pace.  The new video show the same empty boulevards but with more skyscrapers being built in the background.

(direct link to Youtube video)


Melissa Chan provides more details in here blog entry

She interviewed the same person, Mr. Chovanec, as last time and he provides the reasons why supposedly rational people would invest in an empty city and expect a positive return.  Mr. Chovanec provides more examples of bubble behavior in China in a recent blog entry titled This is What a Bubble Looks Like

China's response to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 was to tell the banks to lend, and they did. The resulting excessive credit growth just exacerbated the already imbalanced situation brewing in their country.  When the next monetary event comes with Greece's default I will not be around (metaphorically) to see if they will be able to 'fix' the problem again.

Google maps link to Ordos