The military intelligence non-event and non-failure of Kim Jong Il's death

Most of the world knows by now of the death of North Korea's dictator, Kim Jong Il.  You may also know it took more than 48 hours before the information was publicly announced to the world and the announcement came from the North Koreans themselves and not from any western intelligence services.

The New York Times recently ran an article claiming this is a failure of western intelligence services:

For South Korean and American intelligence services to have failed to pick up any clues to this momentous development — panicked phone calls between government officials, say, or soldiers massing around Mr. Kim’s train — attests to the secretive nature of North Korea, a country not only at odds with most of the world but also sealed off from it in a way that defies spies or satellites.

My question to the New York Times and everyone else is how do you know we didn't know about it?  IF our intelligence agencies had picked up the information and then broadcast this news to the world do you think this would have been a good use of that intelligence gathering method?  News and information coming out of North Korea is challenging at best so IF our spooks had a channel to this sort of high level information why should we let the North Koreans know we have the information ourselves?

During the Clinton administration it was leaked that our CIA was spying on the Japanese during trade negotiations.  Talk about short sighted. If you are successfully gathering information why go public with your success? From the LA Times:

Among the successes, sources say, is strong intelligence information the CIA provided on the Japanese during this spring's heated auto trade negotiations between the Clinton Administration and Japan. "We've done really well with the Japanese," one source said.

Now of course it is entirely possible our spooks did not find out about Kim Jong Il's death until the public release.  I hope not but it is entirely possible. If so there is hope on the horizon. In 2008 Orascom was granted a monopoly license to provide cell phone service in North Korea.

Orascom Telecom Holding was awarded a Greenfield license to establish and operate a WCDMA (3G) network in DPRK in January 2008. koryolink was launched in December 15th 2008 as a joint venture between OTH (75%) and Korea Posts and Telecomm Corp. (KPTC) (25%). koryolink has deployed its 3G network to initially cover the capital Pyongyang - which has a population of more than 2 million - with an ambitious plan, already under implementation, to extend coverage to the entire country. OTH has over 431 thousand subscribers and 100% market share as of December 2010.

All it would take is a few well placed  bits of hardware and software installed onto that network to provide a flood of data for our intelligence services to chew through. Furthermore cell phone transmissions can be remotely detected and analyzed if a physical connection to the network cannot be obtained.  As the North Koreans discover the convenience of cell phones the challenges of intelligence gathering will lessen.

Additional reading:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/28/kim_jong_il_funeral_photos
http://news.yahoo.com/funeral-north-korean-leader-amid-worry-future-000414786.html
http://www.orascomtelecom.com/regional_Presence/default.aspx
http://g.co/maps/jw6kg

North Korea watch -- look out for some sabre rattling?

North Korea is rumored to have recently closed all universities and put the students to work:

From North Korea Econ Watch

The reports said the students would be put to work on construction projects in major cities and on other works in a bid to rebuild the economy. This could indicate that the country’s food crisis and economic problems are worse than previously thought.

Combined with reports of additional EU aid it appears the speculation of severe stress in the Hermit Kingdom appear to be correct.

From the Guardian

The European commission is to give €10m (£9m) in urgent food aid to North Koreans on the brink of starvation, after negotiating for "unprecedented access" to ensure that the food goes straight to those most in need.

With North Korea on the ropes I wouldn't be surprised to see some sabre rattling and more than your usual number of threats and provocations in the near future.  South Korea recently winning the 2018 Winter Olympics bid provides North Korean a new 'delicate' target to threaten as well. 

Inside North Korea's propaganda machine

Here's a documentary on North Korea's propaganda machine and the people trained to fill it.  Remember the kids you see are some of the elite.  Unfortunately  I doubt the current wave of revolutions will break the bulkheads on this repressive country.

There are small scale operations attempting to tell the citizens of North Korea what really going on but I doubt it will amount to much at this level of intensity.







ht:
@limlouisa
@marykissel

North Korea - The craziest country in the world

Here's an impressive graphic with some stats surrounding North Korea.   The image may be a bit too small to read; here's the original.

North Korea from another perspective

Ever since my previous posts on North Korea I have been on the lookout for more articles.  The pathology of how the the authorities are able to completely twist and warp the nations reality is fascinating to me.  Slate.com ran a recent article:

A Nation of Racist Dwarfs:  Kim Jong-il's regime is even weirder and more despicable than you thought.

Consider: Even in the days of communism, there were reports from Eastern Bloc and Cuban diplomats about the paranoid character of the system (which had no concept of deterrence and told its own people that it had signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty in bad faith) and also about its intense hatred of foreigners. A black Cuban diplomat was almost lynched when he tried to show his family the sights of Pyongyang.

Interesting reading . . .

Something to be thankful for . . . An American's visit to North Korea

Considering America's current situation one's concern with their own economic position is higher up on the priority list of its citizens.  If you think its bad here be glad you don't live in North Korea  

Real information about North Korea is very tough to find so I was fascinated by the recent writings by Patrick Chovanec.   After reading the entries I want to go back and read 1984.  It is amazing how the government has such control over the information and culture of North Koreans.   Please read the entries for a perspective on a truely repressive regime.

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
Part 6