Friday, April 6, 2012

Before you panic about the employment report -- Some context

The monthly employment report was released today and while the economy continues to add jobs the report did not meet expectations.  (As of writing this on Friday afternoon SP500 futures were down 1+% while long term bond futures were up +1.3%)

Here's a longer term chart of the year over year percentage change of total employment as reported by the government and ADP. (ADP is in red)
Source: Federal Reserve

Employment is still growing but the rate of growth is looking like it may top in the near future.  If in the next couple of months you see these metrics really roll over then I'll be hitting the REAL panic button but right now the slow grind upwards still appears valid.

That being said I'm not suggesting you go out and buy stocks.  If America slows down from our already tepid growth as Europe falls back into recession and China continues to slow the world could be in some serious trouble. (All in all I'm not too enthused about equities right now as they have already had a huge run from late last year.)

Just please keep this chart in mind if the markets are down on Monday and the financial press is in a lather about it all.

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