Wednesday, April 14, 2010

China lending continues to slow

China lending continues to slow down after the dramatic increase beginning December 2008.  Chinese banks take lending orders from the Government so this is not a suprise to the powers that be in the Middle Kingdom. 

Considering the peak lending was November of last year it may take several more months for the slowdown to work its way through and finally start to be felt 'on the ground'

Will the lending slowdown be enough to tamp down on rising property prices?  Or will they raise interest or reserve rates?  Inflation and growth in China are on the hot side right now so they may be forced to tamp on the brakes a little harder than just slowing lending.

As I have mentioned previously the peaks and valleys of bank lending have coincided rather closely to the peaks and valleys of the Shanghai stock exchange (the local exchange, not etf's like FXI)  This time around Shanghai peaked (so far at least)  in early August, preceeding peak lending by several months.   I'm wondering if this connection will hold again . . .

Additional reading:
China daily - Lending slowdown
China daily - Chinese banks will need more capital.  Considering all the money they lent out more capital will be needed to provide future leverage

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