The smell of lending bubbles in China. Do you like butter on your popcorn?

One item which is becoming a pet peeve of mine is the practice of writing articles making predictions with no underlying factual data to buttress their conclusions.  If you are going to predict something, at least tell me why! 

A current hot topic is China and whether it is in a bubble.  And if in a bubble, what kind?  Well, here's some juicy data and anecdotal evidence for you to chew on.

If you notice, lending in China skyrocketed last year.  As of November 30, 2009, total loans outstanding are up nearly 35% year over year.  That is a huge increase in the rate of growth.  

I would put to you that all that money sloshing around did not just end up in solidly performing loans made with proper underwriting standards with the full expectation they will be paid back. 

Sharp eyed readers may notice the decline in lending growth from October 07 to the nadir of November 08 coincides with the dramatic decline in the Chinese equity markets almost perfectly.  Once the lending spigots were turned back on the Chinese markets reversed course and charged back up again. 

I have previously mentioned my suspicions that some of that lending deluge has also made its way into the commodity markets as pure speculation, but I'll leave that to a later entry.

The hedge fund manager Jim Chanos has also noticed this excess credit creation.  Around time point 4:15 he starts to discuss China and their excessive lending.


When will this bubble pop? Can't tell you that. Keeping the pace of lending up at 35+% yoy may be a challenge for the Chinese government this year as the banks are running out of spare capital. There's already a lot of talk and some action trying to tamp down the speculative fires in property prices.  Where and when this all goes poof  is subject to speculation.  If it ends in 2010 it will punch a serious hole in the current world-recovery-buy-commodities-and-all-risky-assets theme. Its a dangerous game to play right now as prices can go parabolic before they go splat but I'm watching and waiting. 

Sit back and get your popcorn. The show will be very interesting to watch in 2010.

An example of how not to negotiate

Negotiation is an art and sometimes the battle is won or lost before discussions even begin.  The recent Copenhagen negotations on climate matters provides an excellent example.

From the Guardian, a journalist claims the Chinese wrecked the climate deal (2009, December 22)
A few choice words from a very interesting article:

.. But I saw Obama fighting desperately to salvage a deal, and the Chinese delegate saying "no", over and over again . . .
 . . . What I saw was profoundly shocking. The Chinese premier, Wen Jinbao, did not deign to attend the meetings personally, instead sending a second-tier official in the country's foreign ministry to sit opposite Obama himself. The diplomatic snub was obvious and brutal, as was the practical implication: several times during the session, the world's most powerful heads of state were forced to wait around as the Chinese delegate went off to make telephone calls to his "superiors". . .

 . . . So how did China manage to pull off this coup? First, it was in an extremely strong negotiating position. China didn't need a deal. . . .

. . . This does not mean China is not serious about global warming. It is strong in both the wind and solar industries. But China's growth, and growing global political and economic dominance, is based largely on cheap coal. China knows it is becoming an uncontested superpower; indeed its newfound muscular confidence was on striking display in Copenhagen. Its coal-based economy doubles every decade, and its power increases commensurately. Its leadership will not alter this magic formula unless they absolutely have to. . .

The bit in red  is the most critical. The Chinese didn't need a deal but they knew President Obama and other western leaders were desperate for one and they knew this. 

Always have a BATNA -- A Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement (I forgot where I read this, if you know, please let me know, I need to re read the book) .   If you cannot conceive of an alternative to the deal or contract you will negotiate poorly. Your opponent will most likely sense your situation as well and push you harder.  If you aren't willing to walk away from a deal your probabilities of not getting a good deal go up dramatically. 

Energy costs are a very important factor in numerous industries and the Chinese know this.  Why in their minds should they negotiate away this advantage? The Chinese suceeded in making President Obama and leaders of the rest of the Western world look foolish which will color future negotiations.  A very successful trip for the Chinese.

Philip Verleger on Oil, Natural gas, the Saudi perspecitve and more

A 30+ minute podcast of Philip Verleger interviewed on Bloomberg Radio.  (click the little play button next to the date)  A good overview of the oil, natural gas markets, the Saudis, and more.  He touches on the current use of tankers for oil storage, Exxon's purchase of  XTO, trade balances and the Chinese.

I have been following Mr. Verleger for a while and it is refreshing to hear an analyst say he was wrong.  Predicting the future prices of assets is always very tricky but he at least admits it.  He does reinforce that the inbalances causing him to predict low oil prices in 2009 are still there and do not appear to be abating.

Home mortgage delinquency rates keep rising

Delinquency rates keep rising for home mortgages. Calculatedrisk blog provides the details and they are universally not good.  As you can see from the chart, delinquency rates have skyrocketed and are not slowing down. 

If you have sensed a bit of bearishness throughout my blog entries so far, this hockey stick graph is one of the reasons. (I'm not always a pessimist, really)  Rising delinquency rates are one of the impediments to a healthy growing economy.

Oil and oil products inventory update. Refining margins and shipboard inventory

It has been a while since I posted regarding inventory levels of oil and oil products.  Here's an update:  Inventory levels have fallen from their highs earlier this year but are still elevated.  Refining margins still stink and a signficant number of tankers in the world are being used as seaborne storage playing the contango trade.

Like a lot of other commodities, oil prices are showing an expectation of further worldwide growth while inventory levels do not yet show such growth.  As the markets quite often attempt to predict the near term future, if this growth does not occur prices may correct to the downside rather quickly.  Of course the Iranian / Israeli situation my heat up and toss all economic factors out the window. 

Even with the recent drawdown in inventory they are still higher than last year at this time.   It is of course unknown if the recent dramatic decline will continue, but considering the cold weather in America it is very possible.

To quote business week:

A 26-mile-long line of idled oil tankers, enough to blockade the English Channel, may signal a 25 percent slump in freight rates next year.

Traders booked a record number of ships for storage this year, seeking to profit from longer-dated energy futures trading at a premium to contracts for immediate delivery . . .

The storage trade is profitable so long as the spread between energy contracts exceeds ship rental, insurance and financing costs. A year ago, the spread between the first and sixth Brent crude-oil contracts traded on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange was 23 percent. Now, it’s 4 percent. . . .

ht: The Big Picture blog

Something to be thankful for . . . An American's visit to North Korea

Considering America's current situation one's concern with their own economic position is higher up on the priority list of its citizens.  If you think its bad here be glad you don't live in North Korea  

Real information about North Korea is very tough to find so I was fascinated by the recent writings by Patrick Chovanec.   After reading the entries I want to go back and read 1984.  It is amazing how the government has such control over the information and culture of North Koreans.   Please read the entries for a perspective on a truely repressive regime.

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
Part 6

Looking for a man gift?

If you are looking for a Christmas gift for a guy, here's something to consider.  

Shake flashlights convert shaking energy into electrical energy by means of a high strength magnet passing back and forth through a coil of wire. The electrical energy generated is stored in a capacitor. The energy in the capacitor is then used to power a high brightness Light Emitting Diode (LED).

I have purchased a few of these over the years for myself and as gifts. They are VERY tough and worth the money.  There are lots of knockoffs so be careful where you purchase it.  Here's a link to the company where you can purchase them directly.


http://www.appliedinnotech.com/products/shake-flashlights/shake-flashlights.php

A shake light is not as bright as a battery powered flashlight but are great as a backup light source.  Since there are no batteries to wear out, putting one in a car or boat is great insurance. They are somewhat large so don't be surpised when it shows up in the mail.  They do make a smaller version but I wouldn't suggest it unless you are really tight on space, the light thrown out by the smaller version isn't worth the smaller size.

I rate it 4 'wrenches' out of 5.