Housing update -- Build it and they will come?

Does supply lead demand or the other way round?

Attached is the year over year change in the Case-Shiller home price index and new housing permits.  The year over year rise in 2010 was most likely due to the one time tax credit provided by the Federal Government.  

One may notice it appears new home permits lead the rise and fall of home prices.  Regardless both prices and new home permits are negative on a year over year basis which does not bode well for future employment or home price appreciation. 

Linkage roundup

Some stuff I've been reading:

Saudi's ready to pump more oil after OPEC disagreements.  Could get interesting if Saudi Arabia decides to burn the other OPEC nations and pump all out.  They have done this before to let everyone know who's boss.
If you are looking for a good historical book regarding oil and politics I'd suggest
The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power

Central banks are culpable for cycle of boom / bust --  I have been meaning to write a longish entry regarding how specifically emerging market central banks have contributed to the cycle of boom and bust but this will have to do until then

US structural problems remain -- We are not out of the woods. It is going to take a while.

One reason for high yield falloff ? -- The Fed is selling into an illiquid market it appears, driving down prices.

I know, cheery stuff! Here's some good news:
Industrial jobs coming back to America? -- China's inflation and a declining dollar may help induce an improvement in domestic production. This macro idea has been something I've been considering for a while.

Hugh Hendry April commentary

The April monthly report for the Ecletica Fund managed by Hugh Hendry recently escaped to the internet and as usual Mr. Hendry weaves disparate topics into his commentary.

Accepting absurdity?

I was reading something recently about the Nobel Prize winner Richard Feynman that made me think that money management was perhaps similar to physics in that you advance by accepting absurdities. The history of physics, he claimed, is one of unbelievable ideas proving to be true. "Our imagination is stretched to the utmost not, as in fiction, to imagine things which are not really there, but just to comprehend those which are".

This one comment really struck me as I have a scientific degree and the idea of the absurd eventually becoming accepted wisdom rings true with me.  While studying various bodies of scientific knowledge it's always interesting to see how sometimes the observational data was not yet supported by theory (and thus absurd) while at other times it was the chalkboard crowd who's absurd theories were dismissed as impossible until observational data caught up to the theory.

Unfortunately the intellectual framework of truth is truth, I just can't prove it yet can get you into serious trouble in the markets.  There's your opinion, the truth, and the market.   I have had to struggle at times with the experience of my opinion of a securities' worth varying from the market's opinion, and even worse diverging in opposite directions.  Remember, you can be right and still lose money.

edit: Sorry but my source for this had his Scribd account closed.  I'm looking for another copy out there in internetland.

edit 2: Found another copy of the report, here it is:
http://www.offshore-rebates.com/pdf/TEF.pdf


ht TheTailchaser

Weekend linkage

Here's some weekend reading/listening for you.  I really should do this more often so you can see what I'm looking at:

Saudi Arabia going ahead with building 16 nukes:  Even after Fukushima they have decided to go ahead.

Why didn't Fukushima #2 (Daini) meltdown as well?  Very interesting ideas as to why the second power plant complex did not have the problems #1 (Daiichi) experienced.  It may be merely luck and location or it may be the newer powerplant designs.

Nuclear regulatory issues.  Obviously a very large problem as a 'captured' regulator can allow serious problems to develop.

Carmen Reinhart discusses financial repression in developed economies.  If you think short term rates will rise shortly I think you are wrong.  Financial repression is a broad term but a clear example is keeping short term interest rates below inflation (a negative real rate) This slowly inflates away the debt problem.  Will America and Western Europe be able to pull it off?

China's empty cities, again -- A more recent article on Ordos' empty new city

China's debt writeoffs are just the beginning -- The opera of excessive credit growth and very lax underwriting standards is starting to get to the good part.

Goodbye mega huge conglomerate bank

My current mega huge conglomerate bank finally pissed me for the last time. I just got back from setting up my own personal checking account at a local credit union and I am shedding no tears for leaving US Bank.  I will not regale you with my list of annoyances designed to extract the maximum amount of money from my banking 'relationship' with them.

A typical mega huge bank manager? Perhaps.

Lest you think I'm just harping on US Bank for this rant I previously banked at Bank of America until they annoyed me too many times.  Long ago when getting my first home loan Washington Mutual backed out of a locked and approved home loan via a technicality.  I'm not playing favorites in my ever increasing disdain for the mega-huge-conglomerate banks here.

My wife has been a member of a local credit union for several years and after the Bank of America separation I opened our joint account there. What a difference.  The credit union people go out of their way to actually help you solve your problem instead of directing you to the courtesy phone for support somewhere in the world. No activity fees, no minimum balance requirements, no waiting for you to screw up to hit you with a massive fine fee.  I'm not against being charged for items but it appears the current trend in large publicly traded banks is to extract as much as possible from their customers without having them leave in frustration. I'm sure getting the fee/annoyance balance just right occupies the time of several legions of up and coming bank executives.

If your current mega bank pisses you off, take a look at your local credit union. I'm pretty sure the ethos of treating your customers fairly and in a respectful manner is much more common at your local credit union than at the very large banks.

For those of you training for a bank manager position here's the Ferengi rules of acquisition.

Muni bond redux

Late last year I mentioned the relative thrashing muni bonds had experienced.  Fast forward to today and the mass defaults as predicted by Meredith Whitney are not occurring and muni bonds have experienced a nice rebound.  Let's look at some charts:

The ETF's MUB and IEF are great for comparing the two sectors as they have almost the same duration of 7.43 vs. 7.24. While they are not precisely the same (MUB's bonds are more smeared out along the maturity curve while IEF's are very compact) it is good enough for this discussion.

As you can see MUB is now outperforming IEF on a relative basis and the yield one receives from MUB remains higher than IEF with an estimated yield to maturity of 3.30% versus 2.86% Usually municipals bonds yield less than treasuries due to their tax free income but not right now.  Assuming a return to 'normal' with muni bonds yielding 80% of treasuries you'd need MUB to increase by approximately 7.5%

[The math:  80% of IEF's ytm = 2.29%
MUB yield change (3.30 - 2.29) * duration of 7.43 = 7.50 ]

This does not include the tax free coupon one would receive while you wait for the trade to complete and also assumes treasury rates remain stable.  I'm of the opinion treasury rates will also drop in the near future so you'd gain there as well.  All in all a relatively low risk / low reward trade but considering the equity markets have been going nowhere for a couple months I'll take it.  MUB is also starting to outperform SPY on a relative basis as well, go figure...

Reminder: I don't manage your money and this is not a complete part of my investment portfolio. I may not tell you when I close out the position.  This should not be construed as investment advice as I do not know your tolerance for risk, tax situation, need for income, etc. 


Disclosure: Long MUB in both personal and client accounts.

Additional reading:
Ishares MUB etf detail
Ishares IEF etf detail
Business Insider
JPMorgan's comments


Note: Another possible reason why MUB is outperforming is the light issuance schedule for muni bonds right now. This may be due to the previous rush to market while Build America Bonds were still possible before the 12/31/10 deadline or the current high relative yield environment for muni bonds.
Bond Buyer article #1  & Article #2  (ht MuniLass)

Initial unemployment claims are going the wrong way

Initial unemployment claims are starting to creep back upwards on an absolute and year over year basis.  The standard seasonally adjusted 4 week moving average of initial claims (that's a mouthful!) has recently bounced back up to 440k from 400k.

While this does not look so bad if one looks at the data on an absolute level, one can see the trend clearly deteriorating on a year over basis [2nd chart]

Now this is only a few weeks but the trend is not going in the 'right' direction.  My previous post on initial claims data  provided two different theoretical outcomes merely by torturing the data via different means.

Some have posited the rise in initial clams is due to automotive factories laying off people because of supply chain problems stemming from the earthquake in Japan a few months back.  Another possibility is the increase in oil prices is finally starting to really bite into the consumers pocketbook and layoffs are ensuing in consumer sensitive sectors of the economy.  Regardless we will know soon if this is a short term blip in unemployment claims or a longer term trend.