a while since I last updated you on Chinese loan growth. Some of that was due to the problems of getting the data out of China. I was finally able to extract the data and it appears the peak in lending is finally in. March data comes out soon but considering the difficulties of updating this data I thought I'd get you up to date now.It's been
Even with the 'record' lending in the first two months of 2010 both the trailing twelve month total of lending and year over year percent change of total loans outstanding have peaked.
As with every massive increase in lending it ends up on all sorts of places and turns out to be much more prevalent than commonly thought. Elite Chinese Politics blog (Mr. Victor Shih) has some serious allegations of hidden debt in the local government investment entities that are the analog of the Special Investment Vehicles (SIV's) of our banking bust. Here's some more reading on the matter at businessinder.com and here. Of course this is difficult to 'prove' as the Chinese accounting books are not the most transparent but Mr. Shih's work should not be discounted out of hand. I suggest you go to his blog and read the comments and rebuttals. It's good stuff. . .