Showing posts with label hugh hendry. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hugh hendry. Show all posts

Monday, April 18, 2016

Hugh Hendry talking macro and China

It's been a while since I've mentioned Hugh Hendry but he's popped back up on YouTube recently.  After his positively raucous returns in the depth of the crisis he had a long period of very underwhelming returns and from his manner in this broadcast I'd guess a tough few years.

ft.com describes the decline in assets under management in 2014


As always I find him entertaining to watch.   He provides some of the reasons for his reversal of opinion on China as well.  Regardless whether you agree with him or not I suggest you listen.

source: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/04/hugh-hendrys-long-dark-night-of-the-soul/

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Hugh Hendry watch - Turning Japanese

I'm a bit late in this, but here's the most recent report from Hugh Hendry's Eclectica fund.

It's a quick read so I won't excerpt from it except for one trading tidbit:  In 2008 he purchased a 10 year one touch call on the Nikkei with a 40,000 strike price !!!

Q1 Review 2013 Hendry by ValueWalk.com



ht: Mark H @fundmyfund

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Hugh Hendry watch, belatedly -- Buttonwood conference

Here's the latest from Hugh Hendry at the Buttonwood conference a few weeks back. Sorry for the delay in posting this and frequency of posts in general; I've been very busy in the personal and business realm.



Watch live streaming video from theeconomist at livestream.com
ht: PragCap


Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Hugh Hendry coming out of hibernation -- Video at recent conference

Mr. Hugh Hendry of Eclectica appears to have come out of his self imposed social hibernation. Below is a video from the Milken Institute conference where he is part of a panel discussing Europe's problems.  It is a long video but I suggest you watch it.

While Mr. Hendry appears to be still very bearish about Europe I do agree with the person on his right that now is the time to start looking for opportunities. (note, I said LOOK)  With all their problems and low stock prices there must be some incredible buys amongst all the wreckage that European austerity is creating. I'm not suggesting you buy now but start doing your homework.  Anyone have any ideas? I'm open to suggestions.




Thanks Ft.com Alphaville blog

edit: Here's the details on the panel speakers
http://www.milkeninstitute.org/events/gcprogram.taf?function=detail&eventid=gc12&EvID=3566

Monday, April 30, 2012

Eclectica Fund commentary by Hugh Hendry

Hugh Hendry (Hedge fund manager of Eclectica fund) recently released his April commentary which you will find below. (Thanks ValueWalk)

Mr. Hendry has been less visible recently so it is nice to hear his most recent thoughts.  As always he provides some thought provoking ideas and historical analogs to our current situation.  It will be very interesting to see if his ideas and predictions are correct.  Like the name of his fund, his view are 'eclectic'.


April 2012 Hugh Henry

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Hugh Hendry as the Plasticine Trader

Late last year I highlighted a 5 part video series on Hugh Hendry in one of his steadily declining public appearances. In it he used a key term to describe his trading aspirations; the 'Plasticine Trader'

Here's a few excerpts from that series, completely lifted from a new blog called Chasing the vig. I guess I have a new book to put on my reading queue and a new blog to follow.

I have clipped the blog post down quite a bit so I suggest you click on over and read the entire entry. I have also highlighted and bolded some sections I found interesting

Steve Drobny's book The Invisible Hands includes one of the best interviews of a fund manager/trader. Ever. The chapter is called The Plasticine Macro Trader and it is none other than Hugh Hendry, manager of the hedge fund Eclectica Asset Management. This is how we should be thinking and trading. Also, he's highly entertaining. Read the entire thing, but here's some snippets:
Today’s long-only stars operated during a period of time where investors did not require a macro compass.  Today your average long-only guy does not spend much time looking at interest rates, currencies, debt levels, and other key macro variables. I have even been to conferences where fund managers have boasted, “I don’t know where oil prices are going; I don’t know where interest rates are going; I don’t know anything about the government.”  . . . For the last 30 years they could get away with that nonsense, but now at a historic turning point they are being found out.

Again, remember, I believe there is a degree of predictability to what has been happening in markets for the last 10 years. I believe that our generation is embarking upon a long period of unwinding financial excesses. Stock market returns could be terrible for the foreseeable future. If you believe people like Niall Ferguson, debt deflation eliminates all of the gains from the preceding boom, it purges everything. By 1974, we had eliminated all of the real gains from the American stock market since 1906. If we consider Japan as an example, the Topix would have to trade at 300 (or one third its present level) to be comparable with the lows reached during the 1970s on Wall Street. At this point, all of the real gains since the index was reconfigured in 1969 would have been eliminated. . . . 

Have the courage to be different, the courage to risk the ire of others for the sake of being right; to fight rather than embrace compromises everywhere. We have to encourage rebellious notions such as playfulness and curiosity. There is no one correct way of doing things that is set in stone. Periodically managers should be open to trying different approaches.

George Soros explains a version of this phenomenon when he says, “Invest first, and investigate later.” But this is heresy in the institutional money world. When I suggest stuff like that, the number crunchers and the box tickers write down, “crazy guy” and make their polite goodbyes. But every so often a heretic turns out to be a genius.
. . .
Even a true contrarian is only really contrarian about 20 percent of the time; it’s all about choosing the right moment to fight convention. The rest of the time is spent trend following. So I guess I am a trend-following contrarian. I come back to describing myself as a disciplined deviant. But every description that I have for myself is an oxymoron, and when I present my views, most people just think I’m a moron.

I have Tourette’s syndrome—I say “fuck” at all at the wrong times. One of my mentors taught me how to articulate that Tourette’s and then play the odds, become trend following and recognize when the elasticity becomes so extreme that your Tourette’s becomes valid and has the possibility of profits.

I jokingly claim that my best investment decisions come from being a paranoid schizophrenic. I hear voices in my head. Subconsciously and explicitly I seek to create a macro prejudice. And so there’s an ongoing debate by those voices in my head. But the scary thing is that I make investment decisions based on these voices. And so does everyone else. I just talk about it openly and honestly. When I make such decisions I become very fearful, paranoid like a schizophrenic, that these decisions may jeopardize my investors and my portfolio. I would contend that this fear makes me a better investor.
. . . 
That’s the hook; it is one thing to create the intellectual color but it doesn’t go into the portfolio until it starts to gain the attraction of relative momentum. I need the legitimacy of other curious strangers before I get involved.

Last summer I was on CNBC talking up Potash [Corporation of Saskatchewan], saying it was the best positioned company in the world when I suddenly realized everyone was agreeing with me. So I got out. Thank God I can reject my own advice because from July to October of 2008 its performance was diabolical.

The thing that I’m most fearful of is a focused fund, or a portfolio of 20 best ideas, which is a concept that marketed well a few years ago. The reason this idea can prove disastrous is that “best” is an emotionally charged word. Giving up on your best idea is the same as admitting that you’re wrong, something crucially important but very difficult to do.

I don’t believe that there is any real diversification left in the world today, at least not the kind of diversification to which you refer. And the shocking nature of the results in 2008 demonstrates this fact. We live in a world of binary events. Over the last 10 years, markets have oscillated between inflation and deflation, and people are either all in or all out. What we’re trying to do is make sure that we’re leaning at the right time, correctly anticipating the oscillation.
. . .
The same “upside down” logic prevailed in 1979 when Volcker became chairman of the Fed. You had this new sheriff in town who was honest and tough. He was going to raise interest rates to make the economy very weak in order to parch the system of its inflation. He was a dream come true for a bond bull, and yet bonds got destroyed whilst gold doubled to $800 in three months. (See Figure 13.8.) The problem was that Volcker had to come clean on the Fed’s dirty little secret. In order to have the legitimacy to be so hawkish, he had to admit that the problem was inflation; investors panicked and scrambled to protect themselves with gold. A hawk produced a melt-up in gold. Could the dovish Bernanke produce a similar melt-up at the long end of the bond market?
. . .
We are spending all of our time looking for inflation because the Fed will be slow in raising interest rates while the roof is caving in. The private sector’s desire to unburden itself of debt is so great that debt deflation seems much more likely. And if it rolls over with everyone loaded up on risk again, playing commodities and inflation expectations, bonds could go parabolic. The bull market in government bonds is one of the greatest bull markets of all time, and bull markets of that magnitude do not end with a whimper.

Typically my work is all about creating context to establish an environment where I might want to take risk. The challenge with risk management is finding the appropriate moment to expose yourself to that risk. I don’t think the right moment has come to pass for Japan just yet, but this is an idea that I have fermented for five years. Back then, I said that for the trade to work, we would need an extraneous economic shock which pushes dollar/yen down to around the 80s, and we have essentially been there. I am always in danger of wanting too much, but I am looking for those levels again in any subsequent round of global risk aversion. If that happens, I fear the Japanese will debauch their currency in an attempt to generate inflation to monetize their considerable public sector debts. With the majority of the private sector still invested in post office savings, such a step would cause a panic to buy equities and the Nikkei could go back to 40,000. Typically it requires 25 years to break a previous nominal price high in an asset class that has suffered a bubble. So who knows, maybe this is the trade for next decade? They have covered the place with kerosene, now all they have to do is light the match.

I live an interesting life. I made 50 percent in October 2008 and my biggest investor fired me. He said he had a manager that was down 30 percent on the year, but that manager “gets it,” so he was going to stay invested with him. Meanwhile, I made 30 percent on the year and I get fired because I don’t get it? This is the curse of my life. I seem to collect all sorts of witty dinner party anecdotes from my experiences, but I pray for a less interesting life.

Markets are irrational but they are right at every moment. They are right until they are wrong. You have to marry the notion of being right or wrong with being right with the timing of a given proposition. This is not a business that indulges intellectual prejudice.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Linkage roundup

Some reading material for you from my twitter stream:


http://t.co/vXWLZxuV - Italy near tipping point of increased margin requirements. I'm not the only one talking about this
RT @zerohedge: Hugh Hendry says he has made bets that will deliver a 40-to-1 return if the ECB cuts rates below 1% next year http://t.co/PAv4msUK
RT @edwardnh: The fact Greece's exit from euro has been discussed openly is seismic shift http://t.co/QVaWF7si
I'll get bullish when this stops going up. http://t.co/6vmUhc60
97% of family businesses don't make it past the 3rd generation http://t.co/MZAwrwRK
RT @FGoria: MT @M_McDonough: Italian CDS implying, country may be at risk of losing its investment grade status: http://t.co/mIVWCwkk
RT @mbusigin: Note that we did work on this in August, which gave us a different (bullish) signal: http://t.co/ivxLrhzB
RT @mbusigin: The few times realised volatility has eclipsed implied volatility, it presaged large declines: http://t.co/zTRw4ZDE
RT @edwardnh: Greece gets ultimatum: accept austerity plan or forgo extra bailout cash | Business | The Guardian http://t.co/DZSOBkDY -- Greece later backed down.
RT @edwardnh: France and Germany to withhold aid, Greece to be ejected http://t.co/WtNwsF6M #in $$ 
Greek referendum provides political cover http://t.co/MFDzDUCk
RT @PragCapitalist: THE GREEK REFERENDUM AND THE ROLE OF DEMOCRACY: I set off a bit of a firestorm on Twitter this afternoon when I ... http://t.co/O8GZFHvQ
New international bond etf's for Germany, Canada, and Australia $aud $cad $bund http://t.co/OemicVIk
Balestra Capitals Matthew Lucket Talks Gold, Deleveraging Story, and China Credit Problem http://t.co/9vGl387V @historysquared

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Hugh Hendry watch -- 5 part YouTube series from earlier this year

I find this episode of Hendry publicity a little different as he discusses his trading style and aspriations of what he wishes he could be as an investor. If you cannot watch the entire series I suggest you at least watch episodes 4 and 5. Realizing you don't know the future and how having too much knowledge can be detrimental really struck home with me.  If you study a company too much you can fall in love with the security, even as it goes down, down, down, and .... down.  Someday I may gather up enough courage to relate my failures in this category.












Thanks to Zerohedge

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Linkage roundup

Some reading material for you from my twitter stream:


RT @edwardnh: Why the latest eurozone bail-out is destined to fail within weeks - Telegraph http://t.co/sgj8HQcn
RT @credittrader: GReader: The Global Moral Hazard Dawns: Merkel Says "It Must Be Prevented That Others Come Seeking A Haircut" As... http://t.co/Tjd22kbQ
RT @theanalyst_hk: $$ Jim Chanos: Not Impressed By The Europeans, And Still Shorting #China http://t.co/OvdXeWIr #economy #europe
RT @JackHBarnes: Chart of the Day: North Dakota Annual Oil Production: http://t.co/lUWOqWst -- need to do more research myself on shale oil
Transfer payments over time in US http://t.co/sxiw6sF8
RT @zerohedge: And Now, For Some Semblance Of Sanity, Here Is One Hour Of Hugh Hendry http://t.co/5A5Jwgxu -- separate post on this soon(tm)
CITI: Failure To Trigger Greek CDS Could Cause The Whole Euro Bailout To Fall Apart http://t.co/TLDjUF7L -- be careful what you wish for
Meanwhile in China a swan finally takes flight... http://t.co/Z8w40PKd -- Condo prices are falling hard.
RT @AlephBlog: Fannie Squeezing Banks Makes 4% Mortgage a Mirage, Hinders Housing Rebound http://t.co/BKikceRX Higher lending standards fight lower rates
RT @AlephBlog: Money managers and commodities, the case against http://t.co/ynsn1qT3 Graph shows $$ managers drove commodity prices http://t.co/eNKE3nFA
RT @andrewyorks: *EU LEADERS CALL FOR BANKS TO HAVE 9% CORE CAPITAL LEVEL ok move that dial on the upper left to 9 http://t.co/WHLMk6Dm -- should be interesting when taking haircuts on Greek debt.
Skyscraper taller than any in London or Tokyo opens in Chinese village of 2000. http://t.co/IvHoRw4j #thiswillnotendwell
Underground bank lending in China - NPR - http://t.co/677IPKYK
RT @historysquared: $$ The cash commodity trading firms that account for 1 trillion in annual revenue 50% of all transactions http://t.co/TqTvhHM1
RT @ftasia: Iron ore plummets to 15-month low: As Chinese steel mills cut production, the price of iron ore dropped 7.2 per ... http://t.co/RVfC48zy
Blackberry outage made roads safer. http://t.co/agSNxNGX

Monday, August 8, 2011

Risk: As described by Chanos, Hendry and Gundlach

Some videos new and old which may provide some perspective on the recent downgrade of America by Standard and Poors and the current market thrashing.
I could attempt to write something eloquent but I'm busy right now. Instead I'll refer you to some successful investors voicing their opinions.

Chanos talking about credit ratings versus CDS rates
http://youtu.be/kRxAMM7UU_k

Gundlach on how the US will never not pay its debt, it just may pay its debt back with devalued currency
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000037858

A series by Hugh Hendry from late last year which I don't believe I have published before.  Considering the current market thrashing I think the discussion is important.
part 1: http://youtu.be/zvzKgjaVnlE
part 2: http://youtu.be/MJSO3H4GLqw

ht: HistorySquared

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Hedge fund watch - Hugh Hendry and Jim Chanos

Here's some recent news from a few hedge fund managers:

A short video from Hugh Hendry (thanks Creditwritedowns)



Some notes from Jim Chanos' presentation at the Vail value conference. (thanks Katsenelson) Provides more detail on Chanos' bearish position in China.  Note Chanos is a short seller so he is always bearish on something.

Monday, June 6, 2011

Hugh Hendry April commentary

The April monthly report for the Ecletica Fund managed by Hugh Hendry recently escaped to the internet and as usual Mr. Hendry weaves disparate topics into his commentary.
Accepting absurdity?
I was reading something recently about the Nobel Prize winner Richard Feynman that made me think that money management was perhaps similar to physics in that you advance by accepting absurdities. The history of physics, he claimed, is one of unbelievable ideas proving to be true. "Our imagination is stretched to the utmost not, as in fiction, to imagine things which are not really there, but just to comprehend those which are".
This one comment really struck me as I have a scientific degree and the idea of the absurd eventually becoming accepted wisdom rings true with me.  While studying various bodies of scientific knowledge it's always interesting to see how sometimes the observational data was not yet supported by theory (and thus absurd) while at other times it was the chalkboard crowd who's absurd theories were dismissed as impossible until observational data caught up to the theory.

Unfortunately the intellectual framework of truth is truth, I just can't prove it yet can get you into serious trouble in the markets.  There's your opinion, the truth, and the market.   I have had to struggle at times with the experience of my opinion of a securities' worth varying from the market's opinion, and even worse diverging in opposite directions.  Remember, you can be right and still lose money.

edit: Sorry but my source for this had his Scribd account closed.  I'm looking for another copy out there in internetland.

edit 2: Found another copy of the report, here it is:
http://www.offshore-rebates.com/pdf/TEF.pdf


ht TheTailchaser

Friday, December 10, 2010

Hugh Hendry December Commentary

Mr. Hugh Hendry's December commentary has been floating around the internet for a few days and I thought I'd share it with my loyal readers.  As always his letters are an interesting read, seamlessly combining the literary and financial.

Hugh Hendry / Ecletica Fund December 2010 commentary





His main thrust is the monetary stimulus by central bankers is not enough to outweigh the massive consumer deleveraging going on right now.  It is an epic tug of war and Hugh Hendry is on the side of further deleveraging and deflation (for now)  Please read.

ht: ZeroHedge

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Hugh Hendry Watch -- October 28 on BBC

Hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry was recently on the BBC.  While his comments are directed towards the British economic situation they are very relevant to the situation in America.  Watch the entire clip.




Youtube link

ht InfectiousGreed

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Hugh Hendry watch - September 21, 2010 on BBC

Hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry has a long conversation on BBC Hardtalk regarding taking risk and the public bailouts.  It is refreshing to see a 25+ minute discussion regarding taking risk and losses, unlike the nanosecond blipverts so common in American business TV.

Part 1



Part 2



Part 3

Friday, July 30, 2010

Hugh Hendry watch

Here's some linkage and video of hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry.

NY Times article - July 19, 2010

Vdeo interview posted July 23:

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Hugh Hendry takes on . . . . Everyone

Mr. Hugh Hendry is always fun to watch and even more so in this interview:





He discusses the euro, china, George Soros and the 'axis of financial evil'. 

ht: Zerohedge

Monday, May 10, 2010

We're from the IMF and we are here to help you.

Before the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) of Europe breathe a deep sigh of relief as their funding problems are 'fixed' there's a few items to mention:

Assuming the money arrives you still have to deal with the IMF which has a usual gameplan of:

  • Devalue the currency
  • Raise taxes
  • Cut government spending
Item 1 is out the door as countries use the Euro
Raising taxes and cutting government spending is not a mix that encourages GDP growth.  Consider that when making your investments.   Don't forget that during this period of IMF induced austerity debt / GDP levels will continue to rise.  This is the mother of all 'kicking the cans down the road'.

The wad of money (nearly a $US Trillion!) will be used to allow countries to roll their debts, not stimulus.  The French banks are breathing a deep sigh of relief right now.  Everyone else should rethink what this all means.

Here's a video with my favorite hedge fund agitator explaining the situation.  This interview occured before the announcement but it still holds true.



(ht Zerohedge)

Friday, February 26, 2010

Hugh Hendry on China's chronic overcapacity and what it means.

Hugh Hendry once again nails it (in my opinion) as to what China's conversion into the workshop of the world really means.

This appetite for cheap Chinese exports, which had at one point seemed insatiable, means that we in the West have come to owe our largest Asian trading partner quite a hefty sum of money. China has become the world's biggest creditor, after amassing nearly $2.3 trillion of foreign exchange claims on us. However, the spectre of a creditor nation running persistent trade surpluses has ominous historical portents. It has happened only twice before, with the US economy in the Twenties and with the Japanese economy in the Eighties.
Read the entire article, it is not long.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Hugh Hendry debating economists and ambassadors on the Euro and Greece. Loan sharking in the EU.

Hugh Hendry, in the guise of the evil speculator debates Stiglitz and the Spanish ambassador to the UK on the current situation in Greece.    The Greek situation is a mess and in my opinion a 'bailout' would create a tremendous moral hazard.  Ireland, Spain, and Portugal would all scream foul and demand their own cash / backstop.    Only if the bailout includes draconian spending cuts and severe punishment for failure would it actually solve the problem.  Considering we are talking about Greece which has a 200 year history of reneging on its debt the odds drop by quite a bit of a sucessful workout.

Even if you could get the Greeks to promise to spending cuts, would they follow through with it?  The Germans (presumed donor) could agree to purchase Greek debt ONLY AFTER they cut their budget each and every year until the have a balanced budget.  No balanced budget, no more debt buys by Germany.  Perhaps the Germans could attach a percentage of  EU funds flowing to Greece as their payment source? 

Even better, take the title to a few Greek Islands as collateral.  Don't pay up, you get an island (or 20 or so) 






There's some great commentary afterwards at zerohedge on this debate. Go on over and check it out. 


ht Zerohedge