Diesel usage diverging from overall economy

While the economy has been recovering nicely from the Great Recession there are some interesting divergences which are popping up with this recovery.  One of them which has been discussed elsewhere in the blogosphere (sorry no links) is the apparent divergence between fuel usage and economic activity.

Diesel fuel usage

The Ceridian Index reports monthly on diesel fuel used by the trucking industry.   Unlike retail sales which continues upwards the Ceridian fuel index is now declining on a year over year basis. From their most recent report you can see the decline.

One can see in the next chart the apparent divergence between retail sales and diesel usage.

The researchers at Ceridian note the divergence as well and have a possible solution  Unlike the rest of the economy which is improving on a year over year basis, the housing market remains stuck in the duldroms and is still sputtering along the bottom. (See page 6 in the above linked report)

While productivity improvements are also possible I find it unlikely the rate of improvement would be enough to create the entire divergence.  Perhaps the lack of a growing home market and improved fuel usage (or the continued virtualization of our economy) are enough to close the gap between retail sales growth and flat fuel usage.  Only time and further research will tell.  Regardless this indicator bears watching.

Fuel usage and retail sales

Late Night Linkage

Postings have been light due to some business related demands.  Here's some links to my recent reads from the last few days.

Humor
Vuvuzela -- Will it blend? Youtube

Gold
Telegraph - did BIS gold swap spook the markets?

China
From Chinadaily - Property restrictions continue.
Chinadaily - Home price appreciation slows.
Chinadaily - Rate of lending slows in China.

Residential
From CalculatedRisk - A Chapter 13 bankruptcy can wipe away a 2nd lien.

Commodities
From FT -- The financialization of commodities.

LNG
From Hellenicshipping - A lot of spare LNG ships standing idle.

Lumber
Globe and Mail - Canada exporting lumber to China.

Sovereign debt
CalculatedRisk - How much debt is there and what is the probability of default?  It's a multi part series. Good stuff.
GMO - White paper on defaults in history. Very good. Intend to write longer blog post about this.

BP / Oill spill
WSJ - BP has replaced old cap, trying new one in an attempt to stop leak.  (This is at least 24 hours old.)

Euro
Telegraph - Legal challenges to bailout of Greece.
WSJ - Moody's downgrades Portugal.

Debt
Annaly - The debt deleveraging continues.

Timberrrrr! -- Lumber prices hitting the ground.

A few months ago I commented on rising lumber prices and how in my opinion they were due to short term supply problems instead of demand.   It appears now that between winter rains ending and the home buyers tax credit expiring, the supply/demand situation has reversed itself.   Lumber futures prices peaked in mid April and are now below when I first posted on Feb 8, 2010.

The full impact of the tax credit's expiration is not yet known but home mortgage purchase application data is not promising.  Calculatedrisk (2010 June 9) states:

Purchase and refinance applications dropped this week, even after an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday. Purchase applications are now 35 percent below their level of four weeks ago, as home buyers have not yet returned to the market following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit at the end of April.

A longer term graph from Calculatedrisk does not show any sort of bottoming in the trend either.

The elevated level of mortgage delinquencies and real estate owned by the GSE's provides a very clear glimpse at 'shadow' inventory that may appear in the comings months.  (Data from May 12 posting) Add it all up and existing housing supply looks to increase and demand continues dropping.  

Disclosure: Short PCL (Plum Creek Timber)