I've been collecting some links and posts on China for a while and I thought I'd dump them all at once. The title may sound odd but right now China collapsing seems to be the chatter throughout the blogosphere.
I am very certain they are going to run into some serious problems but I'm not quite convinced it is about to collapse REAL soon. I have been waffling on this for some time as to when to sell of my final holdings China related and start shorting (where I can) My previous post on copper lays out a rather negative position but I really need to see some slowdown in Chinese lending year over year as well as some other concrete data points before I declare the China bubble is popping and go full bore.
Maybe the PIIGS issue in Europe will be the catalyst? Dunno. This is whats hard about investing.
Chanos talk on China
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/chanos-sees-overheating-and-overindulgence-in-china/
Previous Chanos interview on China
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35056774/site/14081545
Vitaliy Katsenelson
http://contrarianedge.com/2010/01/28/chinese-quest-for-shortcut-to-greatness/
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_02/b4162030091917.htm
Patrick Chovanec is a treasure trove of all things China with some excellent analysis and further links to follow. Just read it all
http://chovanec.wordpress.com/
The obligitory video of an empty mall in China
http://video.iptv.org/video/1218530801
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/12/14/111176/china-the-heat-is-on/
Read this report. It's mind blowing how much of their GDP comes from raw investment. Yes, you can have too much.
http://www.pivotcapital.com/reports/Chinas_Investment_Boom_the_Great_Leap_into_the_Unknown.pdf
http://www.pekingduck.org/2009/12/chinas-asset-bubble/
I don't know if I can find the link but one of the important trends China was facing was (oddly enough) a depleted skilled workforce as a result of workers not returning to their jobs after the Chinese New Year.
ReplyDeleteThis caused wage inflation last year (I am told) in the double digits, and is projected to have the same impact this year.
I have long believed that exposing the Chinese to improved standards of living and wealth ultimately brings the evils that comes with biting the apple (of tree of knowledge fame). Two classes of employees develop - those hungry for more (and demanding more) - and those disenfranshised who leave their posts.