Consumer credit data came out about 2 weeks ago and the numbers are not getting any better. Unlike my previous entries showing the very long term I thought I'd zoom in a little to show you how this recession is unlike anything we've seen in the last 40 years. Consumer credit keeps going down and the rate of declining is increasing. Call this an anti-'green shoot'.
The economy will not properly recover and the Federal Reserve will most likely not raise interest rates too much (if at all) until consumer credit and bank lending start rising. Until then, get used to very low short term rates.
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