Monday, January 25, 2010

Inflation expectations in the Treasury market

Relative to nominal treasuries, TIPS were a raging buy at the beginning of 2009 (I bought some then for income clients) Since then the ratio has begun to close in on its apparant long term average around 2.50 (eyeball average)

Note how steady the implied breakeven rate has been since ~2003 excepting the crisis of late 2008 - early 2009.   With the current great debate raging between the inflationists and deflationists it is interesting to now how much this indicator has not moved, and is actually returning to a long run average. 

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