Thursday, January 19, 2012

Baltic Dry Index falls off a cliff

The Baltic Dry Index (spot shipping rate for bulk commodities like iron ore, grain, coal, etc) recently fell off a cliff and has not seen these levels since the dark days of early 2009.
While one can say there are legitimate supply problems (a huge overhang of new ships coming online from the order surge pre financial crisis of 2009); to see such a dramatic drop is impressive and deserving of attention. I have been quite bearish on China for quite a while on this blog (although now that their market has been thrashed and policy changes appear to be taking place I may have to alter that opinion) and the sudden fall in the index may be due to a lack of  import volume into China. We'll see in a little bit if this drop in the Baltic Dry foretells a real slowdown in China...

Source: Stockcharts

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