While I touched on initial unemployement claims before in an attempt to see if Google Trends could accurately predict changes, (failure!) other people have shown the change in initial unemployment claims provides some predictive value. Creditwritedowns writes about how looking at the year over year change in unemployement claims provides insight into changes in consumer spending in America. In short, a year over year decline in initial unemployment claims forebodes postive growth in the economy.
Looking at the year over year percent change in initial unemployement claims all appears well. The year over year number is negative meaning fewer people are getting laid off each week.
There is a problem with this prognosis however and you can see it looking at the absolute numbers in the second graph. In chart two initial unemployment claims have remained quite stubborn for 2010, refusing to drop below the ~440k number for the entire year. In a couple months if unemployment claims don't start falling our year over year metric will flatten out. Right now the employement situation is treading water and this meshes well with the general sluggish feel to the economy.
Right now this economic indicator is flashing Yellow.
I have not commented on the foreclosure mess but considering how it may impact you, gentle reader, I thought it worthwhile to repeat.
In short, the mortgage processors and servicers did not keep a proper chain of custody and MBS Pool 'C' which believes they own the mortgage does not have the paperwork proving they purchased it from Loan Company 'A' which sold it to 'B', who packaged it up into MBS (Mortgage backed security) 'C', and Bank 'D' now owns said MBS.
Some people along that chain over ownership have been caught forging paperwork. It's a long and nasty tale that will remain stuck in the courts for a while.
If you know of someone who is going through foreclosure and they want to keep the house this is something to keep in mind. Talk to a lawyer about ensuring the bank has all the proper paperwork.
First, the affidavits IndyMac used to file the foreclosure were signed by a so-called robo-signer named Erica A. Johnson-Seck, who routinely signed 6,000 documents a week related to foreclosures and bankruptcy. That volume, the court decided, meant Ms. Johnson-Seck couldn't possibly have thoroughly reviewed the facts of Mr. Machado's case, as required by law.
Secondly, IndyMac (now called OneWest Bank) no longer owned the loan—a group of investors in a securitized trust managed by Deutsche Bank did. Determining that IndyMac didn't really have standing to foreclose, a judge threw out the case and ordered IndyMac to pay Mr. Machado's $30,000 legal bill.
Citigroup Inc. and Ally Financial Inc. units were sued by homeowners in Kentucky for allegedly conspiring with Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems Inc. to falsely foreclose on loans. The homeowners claim the defendants filed or caused to be filed mortgages with forged signatures, filed foreclosure actions months before they acquired any legal interest in the properties and falsely claimed to own notes executed with mortgages.
Nakedcapitalism has posted several entries regarding this topic. Here's just one entry:
Lender Processing Services, a crucial player in the residential mortgage servicing arena, has been hit with two suits seeking national class action status (see here and here for the court filings). If the plaintiffs prevail, the disgorgement of fees by LPS could easily run into the billions of dollars (we have received a more precise estimate from plaintiffs’ counsel). To give a sense of proportion, LPS’s 2009 revenues were $2.4 billion and its net income that year was $276 million.
Here's one MSNBC Video on the mess:
I don't do this nasty tale of cutting corners and deception any justice with this overview. Read all the links above for a fuller story.
Hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry has a long conversation on BBC Hardtalk regarding taking risk and the public bailouts. It is refreshing to see a 25+ minute discussion regarding taking risk and losses, unlike the nanosecond blipverts so common in American business TV.
I have spoken before about how the supply of forced sale (foreclosed or short sale) inventory continues to increase but may be close to peaking. Here's an article stating the peak is not yet in and we have more to come:
From Realestatechannel comes some rather scary data regarding how the pipeline continues to be filled and they see no let up on new supply being dumped on the market.
If this were early 2005, one could claim that 40% of homeowners who were delinquent 90 days or longer would eventually bring the mortgage current. But the cure rate has plunged along with home prices. As early as one year ago, the cure rate had dropped to almost zero. A delinquency of 90+ days now means almost certain foreclosure or short sale.
. . . To come up with a total for the shadow inventory, let's first add the total number of loans in default to those delinquent 90 days or more since we know that these loans are headed for foreclosure or a short sale. That comes to 4.5 million properties. Based on the cure rate for loans delinquent at least 60 days, we will add 95% of those 60-day delinquencies. That is an additional 723,000 residences. For the same reason, we will add 70% of those delinquent for at least 30 days - 1.25 million properties.
And, of course, let's not forget the REOs that have not yet been placed on MLS listings by the bank servicers. We'll be conservative and estimate them at 500,000. Adding all of these together, we come up with a total of roughly 6.97 million residences which are almost certainly going to be thrown onto the resale market as distressed properties at some point in the not-too-distant future. This massive number of homes will put enormous downward pressure on sale prices. To believe that prices are firming now is to completely ignore this shadow inventory. Ignore it at your own risk.
NPR (National Public Radio) has a great ongoing series about the mortgage mess. As a centerpiece to the series they purchased a slice of one very sick package of mortgages and are investigating the mortgages inside it. So far they have found some serious mortgage fraud as well as some other interesting stories. Take a look at one small facet of the housing bubble:
For those of you who aren't knee deep in the markets, you may not know about the HFT (high frequency trading by computers) and their affects on the markets. HFT was implicated in the May 'flash crash' and with the declining volume in the stock market it appears most trading is between computers. In that spirit I present a more humorous slant on the entire situation:
While oil prices have not done much recently total oil product inventories have been creeping upwards in America and throughout the rest of the OECD.
Looking at total US oil and petroleum products inventory levels you will see they are at 20 year peaks! The OECD is also above its 5 year average inventory levels.
So if the industrialized world is filling up with oil where is it all going and why have prices not dropped? Some possible reasons are:
* Emerging market demand and specifically China is a great unknown.
* The Iran / Israel situation is keeping people jumpy.
* The financialization of commodities also provides a firm bid on oil prices.
* Hurricane season is just warming up in the US. We'll see how much carnage they produce.
While I touched on initial unemployement claims before in an attempt to see if Google Trends could accurately predict changes, (failure!) other people have shown the change in initial unemployment claims provides some predictive value. Creditwritedowns writes about how looking at the year over year change in unemployement claims provides insight into changes in consumer spending in America. In short, a year over year decline in initial unemployment claims forebodes postive growth in the economy.
Looking at the year over year percent change in initial unemployement claims all appears well. The year over year number is negative meaning fewer people are getting laid off each week. 
